The Institute For Health Metrics And Evaluation (IHME) announced plans to begin health-related modeling based on data from events that occurred not less than 48 prior to the initial analysis.
The move comes after repeated attempts at modeling future events proved too difficult, as the public grew wary of excuses like “This is really hard” and “Let’s see you do better.”
Ron Stones, an Ohio banking professional, took them up on the “Let’s see you do better” challenge…
“See what I did was I said ‘Okay I’m looking at the data and I’ve analyzed it and I’m providing a model that suggests around 50,000 deaths in the US by April 21st.’ That was back around April 14 or so. And then when April 19th got here and it looked like my model was wrong, I revised it. And I said ‘Okay hold on I analyzed the data some more and now my new model predicts there will be around 45,000 deaths by April 21st.’ And I nailed that one.”
Soundly bested by someone whose only experience was fantastic intentions, the IHME top brass were equal parts furious and humiliated.
They had spent months providing the public with spectacularly bad projections and then revising those projections every week or so in an effort to make them less spectacularly bad, and were caught completely off guard when a rando pulled back the curtain on their most potent tool: time.
“The way I figured it, you could be really off in your first model but then all you gotta do is wait a while and then make your model look more like what’s actually happening, and then call that the new model. Easy peasy.”
As Stone’s success became widely known and everyone with a Twitter and/or Facebook account began creating competitively accurate COVID-19 models, the IHME team realized they needed a new plan if they were going to keep that Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation money pouring in.
Insiders say one of the problems the IHME ran into was an alliance with the media and academia wherein the shared objective was to incite as much fear and panic as possible related to COVID-19. One source said, “If there weren’t this big expectation to really hype the hysteria, then we probably could’ve been a lot more accurate with our models. But everyone was doing it. All of our best friends were in on it. The media, the socially and politically compromised academics, the healthcare workers crying into Facebook videos to prove that they’re heroes — it was big. And it was everywhere. And who were we to rain on the parade?”
The hysteria however wasn’t such a boon for everyone. Outside of academia, the media and the performative social media heroism of a tiny but highly touted fraction of the healthcare community, literally every other American citizen and business and industry suffered tremendous and often irreversible losses due to the manufactured panic. Panic that was justified largely by the wildly wrong modeling.
Having taken their lumps the IHME realized it was time for a major shift in focus to help them regain credibility and justify their future funding and work. That’s when they replaced their previous charter with a new one: effective immediately, their modeling will audit and analyze data from events that occurred at least 2 days prior. Meaning if it happened yesterday, or is supposed to happen in the coming days or weeks, they won’t touch it. But if it happened at least 48 hours ago, they will put their team to work. What’s more, they are now boldly claiming that with this new focus they are prepared to guarantee the public at least 65% accuracy on all of the new models they produce.
A bold move in the ever-evolving world of socially and politically compromised science. And one that leaves many Americans longing for a time when science was science and math was math, and neither were bastardized for social and/or political engineering.
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