The ‘Death Rate’ As We Know It Is Junk Science

This point has made it into just about everything I’ve written in the last few weeks, but it’s still not widely reported in the mainstream or even conservative media and thus merited its own piece and focus…

There are two variables used to calculate a virus’s death rate, but thanks to apathy and malintent amid academia and the media, both of those variables are flawed in ways that inflate the death rate with respect to the Wuhan Virus. And yet still those variables are presented uncritically to the American public as being statistically sound.

The variables are 1) the total number of people infected by a virus, and 2) the total number of people who died from it.

The death rate (i.e. percent of people who will die from a virus) is calculated by dividing the total number of people who died by the total number of people who were infected.

As of this writing, Americans are being told that more than 670,000 of us have contracted the Wuhan Virus and more than 33,000 have died from it. That gives COVID-19 a death rate of 4.9%, which is staggering. If that number is to believed, then 1 out of every 20 people who contract the Wuhan Virus, will die from it.

But it’s just not accurate. At all.

TOTAL NUMBER INFECTED

One thing we know for sure about the Wuhan Virus is that many or even most of us will get it, recover from it, become immune to it (and thus no longer able to spread it), and we won’t even know any of it happened. We will be completely asymptomatic. Many more of us will have very mild symptoms that never in a million years would we suspect to be the dreaded COVID-19 that’s responsible for killing over 20 million jobs, wiping out trillions of dollars from our life savings, adding trillions more to our debt and deficit, and convincing us to give up every shred of our freedom with a pat on the head from the government that’s dishonestly telling us “it’s the only way to win.”

More often than not, that’s what will happen. You either won’t have any symptoms at all, or you’ll have very mild symptoms that barely merited a sick day let alone a trip to the ER for testing. So tens of millions of us probably already got it but aren’t being counted in that “total number infected” figure because none of us knew we had it, and so nobody would have documented it.

TOTAL NUMBER OF DEATHS

We also know that those keeping track of the deaths are counting every person who died with COVID-19 as definitely having died from COVID-19. They may say they’re acting out of an abundance of caution — assuming the worst case scenarios “for our own benefit” — and don’t have time to drill down on the actual cause of death. But that approach does far more to negate our preparedness than bolster it. It’s clear at this point that many — from the media, to the academics, to the politicians and many in the healthcare community — they want this to incite as much fear as possible in the hearts and minds of every American. And eagerly looking for ways to jack up the “total number of deaths” figure is a simple way to help incite that fear. And while that may make us more afraid, vulnerable and ultimately easier to control, it’s predicated on lazy fear mongering tactics that will result in myriad unintended consequences.

THE DEATH RATE

So taken together, you have a significantly understated “total number of infected” variable and an absolutely overstated “total number of deaths” variable, meaning both of the variables are flawed in ways that create a higher death rate.

Like virtually everything else we’ve seen since our national panic attack began more than a month ago, it’s effectively junk science predicated on incomplete information but weaponized to scare us into submission. And sadly, it’s working.


CRITICAL UPDATE, 2:58PM ET: Regarding the death rate, I just realized something about the numbers out of Ohio: The figure Governor Mike DeWine and Director of Public Health Amy Acton leaned on 5 weeks ago to impose the draconian shutdown orders, can be factored today to justify reopening everything. Per their own measure, the COVID-19 death rate is around 0.3% (on par with the flu). Read more about that here.


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4 comments

  1. Careful ! The true measure of epidemic mortality is the CASE FATALITY RATE, and it is done more carefully. Example: On Apr 17, let us say 1,000 new infections occurred. Now we must wait and follow that 1,000 until either [1] they die, or [2] they recover. Then we calculate the fatalities as a percentage out of 1,000. That percentage will be about a 0.1% Case Fatality Rate.

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  2. Two terms that get jumbled up are “case fatality rate” and “mortality rate” (or ratio). Both use the number of deaths in the numerator but use different denominators; confirmed cases for the former and the entire target population for the latter.

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  3. This doesn’t even take into consideration the fact that you really can’t know that the group of people who come down with the disease represent a decent cross section of the whole population. How many of those 1000 “Visitor” mentions were already near death? How many had respiratory issues or immunological ones?

    The CDC gives a range of deaths for flu in the tens of thousands. This amounts, in my opinion, to meaninglessness. They don’t know how many people get the flu, get hospitalized, or die from it. The same will be true with this virus.

    South Korea did this crazy thing and went after what we used to call disease “vectors”. They quarantined people who were actually sick and tested those who had come into contact with them, as much as possible, obviously. They didn’t shut down their lives and the low death rate has already peaked.

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  4. The only way to judge the seriousness of a disease is to measure against total population. This controls for 1) the disease is not very contagious and few people get it (you can’t die from a disease if you don’t catch it) and 2) many people get the disease but have mild or no symptoms and thus go unreported. As of April 20, 1 in 45,000 have died from the Dread Virus Roberts, and for that ̶w̶e̶ they destroyed the world.

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