UPDATE, 10/5/18 at 4:41PM ET: And I eagerly and happily present once again, a week later: Brett Kavanaugh: Justice.
UPDATE, 10/5/18 at 2:54PM ET: BOOM! Flake is a “Yes” on the final confirmation vote. So now I’m thinking Collins will probably be a yes also. And contrary to my earlier concerns (below, in the original piece) she wants all these cameras and attention not to virtue signal in front of a fawning media and Left — but to help explain to them why she’s “letting them down.”
Bless her heart. She thinks that will stop them from calling for her to be burned at the stake in the public square. Spoiler alert: It won’t.
UPDATE, 10/5/18 at 1:07PM ET: I’m catching all this on a big delay and will fast forward to “live” on my TV after this update. But it sounds like Flake was on MSNBC signaling he’ll likely be a “Yes.” No guarantees. Again, he usually lives down to his name…and flakes. But this is a positive signal.
ORIGINAL PIECE (published on 10/5/18 around 12:15PM ET)
Call me a pessimist but just moments after the cloture vote to go ahead with the confirmation vote, I’m not feeling great about Kavanaugh’s chances.
At issue are the final decisions of three Senators: Jeff Flake, Susan Collins and Joe Manchin.
(We already know Lisa Murkowski is a “No,” because there’s no way she votes no on cloture and then yes on confirmation.)
But Flake, Collins and Manchin all voted “Yes” on cloture. And that just means they voted to move things forward to the final confirmation vote. And it’s anyone’s guess how they’ll vote there.
Collins said she’ll announce her vote at 3PM Eastern in a speech from the Senate floor.
That’s some high drama. Great for ratings! I guess she has been taking notes from President Trump, after all.
But I have a feeling she’s not asking for all of this attention and all of these cameras so she can disappoint the liberal media and the protesters who have been shrieking at her by announcing she’s a “Yes.” More likely, from my seat, she wants everyone watching when she virtue signals about a variety of things…
- The need for more unity and bipartisanship
- The sanctity of the Supreme Court and certainty that “we can do better than someone who so many Americans are unsure about”
- Something something something John McCain, something something
Watch for it. I hope I’m wrong, but I have a feeling that’s what’s coming.
And then Jeff Flake does what he does best. He flakes, and basically plagiarizes Collins’ logic to justify it.
And that’s it. It’s over at that point.
But let’s assume Flake doesn’t flake. Let’s assume he, however grudgingly, votes “Yes” on confirmation.
That leaves Manchin.
He’s the real coin toss for me. But just like Flake boxed Collins and Murkowski in when he called for the week long FBI investigation, so too will Collins box Manchin in when she gives her impassioned speech about her “No” vote — and is immediately hailed as a hero by the media and entirety of the unhinged and very-fired-up Left. If Manchin votes “Yes” in that environment after Collins votes “No,” he will leapfrog right over Rush Limbaugh, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence and Jesus Christ to be the Left’s primary target just under President Trump.
So again, I really hope I’m wrong, but I feel pretty certain based on her track record of being an idiot, and her desire for so much spotlight today, that Collins is set to please her liberal media puppet masters and announce a “No” vote.
And I think Flake lives down to his name, and follows suit.
And if he doesn’t, then maybe — just maybe — we still stand a chance with a Manchin vote.
But I’m a long way from optimistic right now. Maybe I’m just preparing for the worst, which is a lousy way to live but isn’t uncommon on my end. I prepared all my friends and family for Trump to lose the general, but my map was actually dead on with the exception of Michigan…
(Twitter deleted the account where I shared this but someday I hope to get all of my accounts reactivated and until then I’m fine with people just not believing me. This was the legit map that I put out there and stood by, while still preparing myself and those closest to me — who weren’t on Twitter — for the worst.)
And I’m just tixting with a friend who reminds me that if Kavanaugh doesn’t get nominated, then we just start over after the midterms. And I know that. And in fact, I think Kavanaugh not being confirmed might actually help Republicans in the midterms by firing our side up even more and reminding everyone of what’s at stake. Not to mention the lazy Left might be a little gassed after what will feel to them like a hard-fought victory in defeating the Kavanaugh nomination.
But as I tried to articulate a few times now but haven’t done such a great job (here and here), I think Kavanaugh not getting confirmed will be really bad for our nation in the long term. This is a critical inflection point not so much politically or judicially, but more so socially and culturally. While we know that identity politics are a great weapon used by the media and the left, it wasn’t clear if they’d be able to weaponize #MeToo politics as well. But if they pull it off here, then they’ll just be able to keep doing it. And it’s a really sick, slippery slope. The precedent will be set that a public figure can be convicted on allegations alone. And extremely flimsy ones, with lots of holes in them, at that. And that’s just really dangerous.
That, even more than the enormity of the SCOTUS seat, is what matters the most to me. And what has me the most worried about how this will all turn out.
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